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Inventory / Sales Demand forecasting

Inventory demand forecasting Based on historical sales data, have a re-order point (when to order) and a quantity order point (How much to order)

Be able to integrate with http://www.lokad.com/salescast-sales-forecasting-software

Or at least export TSV files matching Lokad criteria to be able to import into Lokad for demand forecasting


25 people like this idea

I think Dear should definitely have some basic forecasting functionality as well as some other higher level business metrics like cash to cash conversion in days, current inventory days of supply, dwell time.  Would be nice to see this by product.


8 people like this

We currently use other software to maintain a forecast and plan production runs. We then enter into production in DEAR.  Being able to modify forecasts and input production into DEAR without having duplicate entries would be a huge plus for us. The functionality could be impressive. 


1 person likes this

I would also be interested in some of forecasting module beyond the reorder point. 


3 people like this

Very interested here too. 


For companies with a lot of products, even a simple general reorder flag based on x months of historical sales would be great.  


2 people like this

The same for us.  Inventory demand forecasting is something we are really struggling with and other cloud based inventory systems seem to have better integration with the likes of Lokad.


3 people like this

Same here, we are really looking forward to a forecast functionality in DEAR!


2 people like this

Gets our vote! V important


2 people like this

+1


2 people like this
Just wondering if any updates on if this is being considered?

 


3 people like this
This is something we really need and missing from this otherwise great software! Currently we use external spreadsheet to manage correct and up-to-date values in the fields: "Minimum Before Reorder" and "Reorder Quantity" based on sale volume over time.

Instead the system should be able to switch to a mode using historical sales data (last 12, 6 or 3 months average, or weighted average favoring the last few months more - this should be an option in the settings).

The fields "Minimum Before Reorder" and "Reorder Quantity" would be then calculated based on two new fields e.g. "Days Before Stock runs out [days]" "Reorder period [days]". These two fields would be filled in by the user, based on the type of their business needs. If these two new fields are not filled in, the user would have still the option to fill in the "old fields", ultimately deciding if he or she should reorder based on quantities or time (projected sales).

This should be quite easy to implement and shouldn't need some complex back-end coding. Please do it and DEAR Inventory will become a much more solid tool for our business. Thank you!

 


6 people like this

Yes exactly the point @Karel Koubek

This 'smart' data which Dear uses to calculate the stock on hand days or re-order level is already in the system through the reporting, so surely it can't be that hard for that reporting to inform the stock re-ordering process.


4 people like this

I'm interested in understanding how people derive and fine tune their "reorder qty" and "minimum before reorder" values using DEAR. In our old accounting system, there were reports to analyse items sales vs previous financial years. The report would show unit sales, GP, profit margin and calculate the differences so I could easily see how sales were tracking over the same period versus different years. Is there a way for DEAR to do this at all? As some reports are limited to only one year's worth of data how is it possible to set accurate reorder values in DEAR according to changing business conditions? Interested in hearing your suggestions.


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We are desperate for this!  Or even just a report that shows sales history and current quantity on the same screen so we can pull it into excel and calculate it for ourselves! This seems like it should be a main feature of an inventory software.  


1 person likes this

Hi all

We are planning to implement 3 different plans for stock forecasting. Could you please express your opinion if our plans make sense at all so we can schedule development accordingly 

Plan
Description
Price
Basic
Basic stock forecasting module will support the following functions:
1. The period the average sales is calculated over
2. Every supplier/product/warehouse combination has 3 parameters required    for calculations:
a) Safety stock in days
b) Lead Time in days
c) Default Reorder Quantity
2. For every combination (supplier, warehouse, product) system calculates:
a) Sales Velocity   (SV) - average sales for a given period
b) Reorder Point =(Available Quantity + Quantity On Order - Lead Time - Safety Stock) * SV
c) Use calculated Reorder Point to time when to create purchase order in DEAR, either manually or via automated purchasing function
 
$99 per month
Advanced
Basic stock forecasting module    +
 
1. Out of Shelf (OOS)    function.
Using history of sales and available stock, the system determines the OOS periods in the past and calculates SV only using periods without OOS.
User needs to setup OOS parameters (by default OOS event happens when    available quantity turns zero)
Pros. More accurate SV calculation
Cons.SV calculation is slightly less transparent
 
2. Support for seasonality
a) User will create manually seasonality profiles for product    categories known to have the same seasonal behavior. 
b) System will automatically take into account seasonality profiles    using forecasting algorithms with seasonality component. 
Pros. Significantly more accurate forecast for products with obvious    seasonality
Cons. Less transparent SV calculation and the need to maintain seasonality    profiles
 
3. Support for Safety stock    automation and optimization function
 
Automatic calculation of the optimal stock level based on the    specified service level or for minimizing the costs of inventory ownership.
Service level is the expected probability of not hitting a stock-out during the next replenishment cycle, and thus, it is also the probability of not losing sales.User needs to specified service level
 
Pros. Safety stock is the    key parameter when estimating correct volume of the order so it’s optimal    value would let to achieve economic order quantity.
Cons. Optimization won’t  be efficient if products are delivered by different suppliers with different lead times.
 
$199 per month
Enterprise
Advanced stock forecasting module +
 
1. Support for demand   impactors
‘Demand impactor’ is unpredictable variation in demand. It maybe a    result of stock liquidation sales, Sales promotion, one-off deals etc.
The periods when these activities occurred and significantly    influenced the demand are removed from consideration. That will allow more    accurate SV calculation. Also, if business has plans to repeat similar    actions in the future their effect is considered in the forecast.
User must maintain the directory of past and future activities
Pros. If business performs    such activities quite often ‘demand impactors’ reduction may significantly    improve the quality of forecast
Cons. Requires a    significant work to maintain a directory of events
 
2. Support for Reorder quantity automation and optimization function
 
Automatic calculation of reorder quantity, considering the available    stock, stock in transit, forecasts and safety stock.
To minimize the order costs and carrying costs and maintain the    optimal level of stocks ‘frequency of replenishment’ is introduced (daily,    weekly, monthly etc) for every supplier/warehouse pair.
 
Pros. Estimating the    necessary volume of the order for the desired horizon or customize it to the  required amount / volume.
Cons. User may have a    difficulty to identify ‘frequency of replenishment’ for every supplier unless it’s achieved by mutual agreement between business and its suppliers.
 
3. Support for Multi-item purchase order optimization function
 
If supplier has minimum order requirements (like min $10000 order,    min weight 2 tones, min volume 1 pallet) system suggest items and quantity that should be included on the order to satisfy supplier requirements.
Also system can recommend the frequency of replenishment for the    supplier based on supplier ‘s requirements / constraints.
User must provide accurate weight/volume information for all items in  stock
 
Pros. Very useful    functionality for wholesale businesses and those who are purchasing overseas
Cons. Required high data accuracy (stock weight/volume information)
 
$299 per month

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